A few days ago, I was having a heated discussion with a friend over the data behind COVID-19 showing the death rate is a serious issue and the mortality rate is significantly dangerous compared to other causes. We discussed several different data points, but one kept spinning around inside my mind, and that was the oft stated opinion that people die in much larger numbers from other diseases every year.
I decided to dig down into that claim and see what was the truth and what was myth. I chose to look at New York state and then narrow down the parameters to New York City. The CDC keeps accurate records for death statistics, but I took one liberty with the data. I singled out New York City as the site for my analysis, but the statistics on the CDC webpage are for New York State. So what I did is a rough approximation of getting the right baselines statistics. New York City is home to roughly 8.5 million people which is 40% of the population of New York State. So I limited my death statistics from New York state to 40% in my analysis, the same percentage as New York City to New York state. I am aware that there will be a variation in this data in the real world. However, as I said, this is a rough approximation. I am not a trained statistician, but I feel that these numbers will be close enough for my rough analysis. If you disagree, that’s fine, run your own numbers and see what you get.
When I dove into the numbers, I found some very interesting pieces of data. This post will be fair and even, I’ll talk about the bad news/worst case scenarios as well as the good news/best case scenarios. According to the CDC’s statistics for 2017 (the last year fully listed), these are the following mortality statistics for medical issues for the entire state of New York:
For the top 10 causes of death there were 117,466 deaths in New York state for the entire year. Over 365 days in the year that works out to 2661 deaths per day on average. If we reduce the numbers to 40% (New York City’s share of the population for the state) we get 46,986 deaths for the year from the top 10 causes. That number averages out to 129 deaths per day on average. However, to get a rough approximation of the mortality rate of COVID-19 in New York City as compared to these other causes of death, we need to break it down even more. So….let’s do that, each cause of death will be approximated to 40% to account for NYC’s population.
- Heart Disease: 17,636
- Cancer: 13,982
- Accidents: 3075
- CLRD: 2903
- Stroke: 2505
- Flu/Pneumonia: 1807
- Diabetes: 1670
- Alzheimers: 1410
- Hypertension: 1080
- Septicemia: 918
That brings us to that 46,986 deaths from the 10 leading causes for New York City for the entire calendar year of 2017. That is spaced out over 365 days. Here’s the problem with the argument that people die from “plenty of other things besides COVID-19. COVID-19 has killed over 4500 New York City residents in 23 days. It will likely kill 20,000 New Yorkers in 60 days. Possibly as high as 30,000. Those kinds of numbers strain the healthcare system, causing morgues to fill up, refrigeration trucks to be used to store bodies and for the local NYC government to consider temporary mass graves to be dug in parks. If COVIF-19 kills in the numbers projected in the best case model for the rest of the year, COVID-19 will kill 40,000 New York City residents from 23 March (date of the first death for the state) through the rest of the year. COVID-19 will kill more New Yorkers in just over 8 months than the top 10 leading causes of death in one year. That is the best case model!!! That is good news though as it means that the death toll will peak on or around the 14th of April and then decline for the rest of the year will fewer than 100 deaths per day by August.
If the best case data model is off and NYC doesn’t peak on the 14th of April, the numbers could soar to 40,000 or even 50,000 deaths in just the next 60-90 days. The numbers could be as high as 80,000 dead by the end of the year, possibly 90,000 in the worst case scenario for New York City with multiple waves of COVID-19 hitting the city.
Currently only one model (the best case model) is showing the death rate peaking on the 14th, other models disagree. In the interest of fairness I should point out that the model that is showing a reduced death rate is the model being used by the Federal government, so it is very possible that model is accurate, but it is no guarantee.
Unfortunately, there is a problem with data models, they are almost always wrong. ALL OF THEM….models are reflective of a statistical snapshot from a moment in time with the data available at that moment. The models predicting 1 million deaths were obviously wrong, but they were possibly correct given the information available at the moment in time, the one model currently predicting a drop off on deaths starting in 10 days is possibly wrong as well. The models give a running estimate to health care providers, Emergency Managers, FEMA, the CDC and the local, state and Federal governments. No one should be treating them as gospel. These models will change daily and could show wild divergence between models.
For context, here are news articles about models in North Carolina and Georgia showing very different infection and death rates than the National model showing a lessening rate in both categories. All of these models can’t be right, and they can’t all be wrong. As stated, they are tools to help those in charge of fighting this virus gain perspective about what is happening. For a better explanation of how models work and are used, this article gives a lot of information.
All of this data about NYC and models and best case/worst case scenarios are examples of analysis. Analysis is a constant, never ending process that changes with the input of new, relevant data or the realization that existing data is less relevant or faulty. This understanding of all of this data and how it is being used in analysis is why I firmly believe the lockdowns will continue into May at least, possibly as long as July.
I also believe given the data I am looking at with the percentage of the population exposed to COVID-19 that we will likely have to do this all over next winter/spring. Pandemics come in waves, as has been historically attested. We will know for certain how much of the population has been exposed to COVID-19 once we get a reliable antibody test into mass production. If the numbers of those exposed surpasses 80%, the lockdowns likely won’t resurface at all. At that point we will have achieved enough herd immunity to limit any future outbreaks. If the exposure rate is 50-80% we will still see limited lockdowns as that isn’t enough herd immunity to stop another massive crush of cases resulting in a second round of pressure on the healthcare industry as well as an equally high or higher death rate. If the exposure rate is lower than 50% (as believed by most epidemiologists) then we will have to endure at least one more or even two more lockdowns of this type. A vaccine cannot be in full production in anything less than one year at the most extreme speed possible. Eighteen months is more likely and three full years is possible if the vaccine is not considered completely safe.
Vaccines take time, time to construct, time to test, time for extended trials and then time for mass production. It takes a long time to make 8 billion doses of a vaccine, so there will be no magic vaccine for the world in 3 months. It just isn’t possible, and for that reason, people should be prepared for another round of these types of lockdowns. The lockdowns are what has improved the Federal model on mortality, the lockdowns are what is helping us flatten the curve, the lockdowns are the sole reason we are starting to have hope that we can keep the US death toll below 200,000 for the year from COVID-19. Nobody is going to end them prematurely to save jobs. No politician in their right mind wants to have the deaths of thousands on their hands because they acted too quickly. I’ll address the economic pain and possible deaths from those conditions in a future post, I just want to say that in most of those cases, dying would be a choice or the outcome of bad choices. Dying from COVID-19 is rarely a choice and in the field of risk management, politicians will err on the side of caution and look to mitigate probable deaths from a virus over potential deaths from economic outcomes.
Finally, I just wanted to make the following comparison for perspective. No agenda with this final thought, just some information. From the day we invaded Iraq in February 2003 until today, 4425 American men and women died in theater from all causes. 17 years……combat, suicide in theater, accidents, 4425 dead. New York City has lost 4400 people in 24 days. Just New York City, not the rest of the state or any other city or state in the country. I firmly understand that thousands of New Yorkers die from other causes as I demonstrated earlier. That being said, if 4425 dead Americans in 17 years from war is a national tragedy, what are the deaths of 4400+ Americans in only one city in our country in 24 days? I’m not even talking about the other 10,000 dead Americans due to COVID-19 since February.
This virus is a threat to our Republic, far more of a threat than any economic pain we will suffer. Jobs can be recreated, money can be earned again, markets can grow again over time. No one will starve in this country, we will not descend into anarchy over the upcoming economic pain. Human lives, on the other hand, cannot be replaced or recreated. Every death from COVID-19 is felt by others, and it is felt more acutely due to so many not being able to say goodbye to their loved ones due to restrictions on visitations. Every person who dies from COVID-19 is irreplaceable, people are our nations most treasured and valuable resource…….my last thought is that I hope we make the decisions necessary to preserve that which is most dear to our nation.
